Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks (Sunday, 3:05 p.m. ET, Fox)
When these two teams met in the opening game of the 2014 regular season at Seattle's CenturyLink Field, the Seahawks stomped the Packers, 36-16. Though, there is little to suggest that a repeat of that score is likely; the Seahawks might be stronger overall than they were in last season's ride to the Super Bowl, but the Packers are also much, much better.
Through the first three weeks of the season, Green Bay head coach Mike McCarthy talked about personnel over scheme, and that mindset was to his team's detriment -- Aaron Rodgers was setting career lows in yards per attempt and touchdown percentage, and the defense was a sieve. Now, the Packers have more formation diversity on offense and a better plan on the other side of the ball. Rodgers is playing at his career best, RB Eddie Lacy is bulling people over with help from an underrated offensive line and the defense is stopping the run at an accelerated rate -- all of which are very important when facing the Seahawks.
However, the big question is how Rodgers will hang in the pocket with his calf injury. He managed to do enough for a close win over the Cowboys in the divisional frame, but the Seattle defense he'll face this time around is better -- certainly in the defensive backfield and in the pass rush -- and operating at a higher level than it was in Week 1.
Another isssue is whether he'll want to test Seattle cornerback Richard Sherman. Rodgers stayed away from Sherman all night in that last matchup, Sherman said this week that the result was a "12 on a scale from 1 to 10" on his frustration-ometer, and several Green Bay players and coaches have said since that limiting your reads to one side of the field really won't work against the best defense in football. The rise of rookie receiver Davante Adams to complementJordy Nelson and Randall Cobb makes this Green Bay receiver group perhaps the NFL's best and most diverse, and Seattle's interior defensive line is depleted due to injury, so throwing Lacy at it like a battering ram would seem to be a good notion.
After their Week 9 bye, the Packers decided to move Clay Matthews from pass-rushing outside linebacker to run-stopping inside linebacker on a much higher percentage of snaps, and the difference has been graphic. Green Bay allowed 1,228 rushing yards and nine touchdowns in the first eight games and 691 rushing yards over the second half of the season. However, DeMarco Murray ran all over that defense in the divisional round, and the Packers didn't have too many answers against Marshawn Lynch in Week 1. They may have fewer answers now, because...
Seattle's offense is totally different. In Week 1, the Seahawks were still trying to force their offense through receiver Percy Harvin, a conceit that probably worked best in last season's Super Bowl, and then started to provide diminishing returns. After the team traded Harvin to the Jets following the Week 6 loss to the Cowboys (when Harvin refused to enter the game in the fourth quarter because h was unhappy with the game plan), the offense became balanced again.
When we talk balance in Seattle's offense, it means an equilibrium between Lynch and Russell Wilson in the run game. This is another area where the Packers could really be in for it -- they bring their linebackers up a lot against the run, because they don't have linemen who can consistently stop power at the point of attack. Lynch is the best in the game at breaking tackles, and transcending the efforts of his pedestrian offensive line.
But if the Seahawks are to head back to the Super Bowl, they'll do it on Wilson's shoulders -- and that's a good way to go these days. Wilson has been seen by many as a game manager, but it's time to throw that pejorative term in the garbage. The Packers have talked all week about the unique challenges Wilson presents with his rushing ability -- 849 yards on the ground in the regular season -- and with his passing acumen in key spots. Against the Panthers last Sunday, Wilson was 8-for-8 for 199 yards and three touchdowns, and all three touchdown passes came on third-and-long. The Seahawks have the horses and the home-field advantage to pull this game out even if Wilson doesn't perform at his best... and if Wilson continues on his current hot streak, this game could get out of hand. As the Week 1 game did, but for entirely different reasons. -- Doug Farrar
Indianapolis Colts at New EnglandPatriots (Sunday, 6:35 p.m. ET, CBS)
Need proof of how dominant New England's run game has been against Indianapolis of late? Look no further than the covers of Sports Illustrated.
Patriots RB Jonas Gray was featured earlier this season, following a 201-yard, four-touchdown showing against the Colts. And his (once and current) teammate LeGarrette Blount landed out front on SI last January, thanks to a four-touchdown game of his own in a playoff victory over Indianapolis.
While the running backs stole the headlines, though, the underlying story of those past two Patriots-Colts matchups has been the thorough physical domination imposed by the AFC East champs.
"The numbers speak for themselves," Colts coach Chuck Pagano said during the run-up to Sunday's AFC championship game, "and if we don’t get that fixed and they’re able to run the ball the way that they’ve run it the last couple meetings, then we’re going to have a long, hard day."
Pagano pointed out the presence of DT Arthur Jones as one reason for optimism. Jones missed the earlier loss to the Patriots with an injury and he was playing for Baltimore last season. At the very least, a healthy Jones offers some hope for the Colts that they will not be shoved around as easily this time.
Which is all well and good, except that the Patriots are just as capable of flipping the script and taking to the air Sunday, thereby countering any adjustments Indianapolis makes to stop the run. In the game before their Week 11 win at Lucas Oil Stadium, the Patriots rushed for all of 66 yards while dismantling Denver; they had 77 yards rushing on their opening possession against the Colts two Sundays later.
Even if they can carry over a defensive effort that's seen them allow a mere 23 points in their first two playoff wins, the Colts likely will have to ask Andrew Luck's offense for a few scoring drives.
Therein lies problem No. 2: Indianapolis has averaged 11 points in the first half of its previous two losses to New England. But the Patriots struggled against the Ravens' attack last week, coughing up 31 points and 428 yards before sealing the game on a late interception.
Indianapolis' own running back, Boom Herron, could be the ticket to success. New England held the Colts to 19 yards rushing back in November, when Trent Richardson and Ahmad Bradshaw were splitting carries. -- Chris Burke
(source: www.si.com)
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